Cristian Javier: 2023 CY Young Winner?

Possibly the highlight of the 2022 World Series was the Astros combined no-hitter in game 4. Headlining that feat was starting pitcher Cristian Javier, who dazzled in a six-inning shutout performance with nine strikeouts. 

Javier threw his signature fastball 72% of the time, and his slider just 26%. And while his fastball averages just around 93.4 mph (around the 55th percentile in the MLB), the Phillies generated an average exit velocity of just 84.6 against that fastball in this game. 

Javier’s incredible performance isn’t just limited to the postseason however; he was among some of the top pitchers in the MLB in the 2022 regular season.

Out of all pitchers who threw 140+ innings in 2022, Javier ranked 10th in ERA, 23rd in FIP, 29th in WAR, and 11th in SIERA. While those don’t exactly scream CY Young numbers, Sandy Alcántara, who won the 2022 CY Young Award, had pretty similar numbers to Javier the year before he won the award.

These numbers really don’t necessarily mean too much, but they do reflect how close Cristian Javier is to being a CY Young level pitcher — a level that Alcántara reached last season. 

In 2022, batters had just a 0.169 batting average against Javier, the lowest in the league against any pitcher. And Javier will only get better. He already has one of the best pitches in the league: his fastball.

He throws his fastball approximately 60% of the time, with an average velocity of 93.9 mph. While he doesn’t throw the fastball as fast as some other pitchers, it is still a remarkably effective pitch. 

Batters against his fastball have just a 0.183 batting average against that pitch, fourth lowest in 2022, and just a 0.181 xBA against it.

4-Seam Fastball

1530 Pitches (59.9%)

Javier loves to locate his fastball up in the zone, an effective two strike pitch where Javier blows his fastball by batters.

(Photo courtesy of Baseball Savant)

Here’s a look at some of Javier’s strikeout pitches with his fastball. 

Here, Javier strikes out Fernando Tatís Jr. with a 93 mph fastball up in the zone. A 93 mph fastball isn’t usually a pitch that batters get blown away by, but here, Javier does indeed blow his fastball right by the bat of Tatís. In fact, it doesn’t even look like a 93 mph pitch — it looks much faster than that. This is exactly why his fastball is so unhittable: it simply looks so much faster than it is. Javier’s teammate, reliever Ryan Pressly described his fastball as “clearly unhittable,” and his other teammate, reliever Hector concurred: "It may say he's 94, but the heater looks 100. It's gas."

Then there’s his slider. Though there is admittedly a small sample size, given that he only throws the pitch 27.6% of the time, Javier surrendered just a 0.121 batting average when throwing that pitch in 2022. 

Javier has the benefit of not only being an elite pitcher, but also having an elite defense behind him.

With Jeremy Peña (7 OAA), Alex Bregman (5 OAA), Chas McCormick (5 OAA), Kyle Tucker (3 OAA), and José Altuve (2 OAA) behind him, Javier can expect a lot of defensive support, which will certainly help to boost his ERA and other pitching stats.

Javier has all the talent, experience, and defense that he needs to make a run for the CY Young Award this year. He has been overshadowed by other pitchers on his team such as Justin Verlander, who recently signed with the Mets, and Framber Valdez, but all signs point towards a massive breakout year for Cristian Javier. Even if it’s ultimately not a CY Young Award winning season, there’s no doubt that he will emerge from this season as a superstar.