It’s time to give Brighton FC the respect they deserve
When you think of the top flight in the English Premier League, you think of Arsenal, Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, and Tottenham. Newcastle could be considered in that conversation in the near future given their Saudi takeover. However, one team has quietly been on the rise, enduring the rollercoaster ride of incredible tactical makeovers, outstanding coaching, and one of the unluckiest seasons in Premier League history. That, of course, is Brighton FC.
The Seagulls came into the league in the 2017-18 season under manager Chris Hughton, who led Brighton to 15th and 17th place finishes in 2017-18 and 2018-19 respectively, just narrowly avoiding relegation.
Brighton then hired Graham Potter to take over as manager. Purely based on results, the hiring of Potter didn’t seem to make much of an impact. They finished 15th in 2019-20, and 16th in 2020-21. However, a deeper dive into their xG difference shows a team that these finishes were unlucky. In fact, Brighton may have had one of the unluckiest seasons in 2020-21, scoring just 40 goals on 50.3 xG, a G-xG of -10.7, the third lowest behind Fulham and Burnley.
Even further, Brighton had the fourth-highest xGD/90, meaning that, on average, they significantly outplayed their opponents in terms of creating scoring chances. The xGD/90 metric is basically the goal difference but with (xG accumulated - xG conceded).
xG is an accumulation of the chances of scoring a team or player has per shot. A tap in from two yards out would be a much higher xG, while a shot from thirty-five yards out would be significantly smaller. Here is the official explanation: https://fbref.com/en/expected-goals-model-explained/.
Despite a poor 15th place finish, Brighton were right up there among the best in terms of xGD/90. The only teams better than Brigthon were Manchester City, Chelsea, Liverpool, and Manchester United.
Clearly, Brighton was one of the most underperforming teams of the season. A disappointing finish in the table might say otherwise, but two years into his hire, Graham Potter did wonders for Brighton.
There was a similar trend the following season, though to a lesser extent.
A 9th place finish saw Brighton’s luck start to even out as the Seagulls regressed to the mean. The only teams better than Brighton were Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Crystal Palace.
Potter was known for his knack for recognizing talent, which helped bring players to Brighton that would turn out to be core players: Adam Webster, Neal Maupay, Leandro Trossard, Tariq Lamptey, Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck, Moises Caicedo, and Alexis Mac Allister.
He was also known as an innovator, creating a tactical system that balanced a consistent attack with steady defending, utilizing his fullbacks to their max talent and a high midfield to create pressure and passing lanes. It’s no surprise that Potter has led Brighton to be one of the best teams in creating xG and limiting xG against. So when he left the club in the early stages of the 2022-23 season, many thought Brighton was doomed.
However, in came Roberto De Zerbi. De Zerbi, who had managed Serie A team Sassuolo prior to joining Brighton, established himself as a risk-taker early on, inviting pressure and developing a new tactic of playing out from the back. Under De Zerbi, Brighton is still 8th place as of Jan. 5th in the Premier League, and with their plethora of young talent, they don’t look like they’ll be slowing down any time soon.
New manager, same Brighton. Manchester City, Arsenal, Newcastle, Liverpool, Tottenham, and Manchester United (all of which are teams in the top flight in the Premier League, only Chelsea is missing) are the only teams above Brighton.
The Seagulls haven’t lost a beat despite losing their famed manager. In fact, as of late, De Zerbi has been able to utilize two young stars to their max.
Twenty-five year old Kaoru Mitoma and 18 year old Evan Ferguson have been standouts in De Zerbi’s new system. Mitoma has proved to be a rock for Brighton’s midfield, displaying his technical abilities as well as his knack for scoring. Ferguson has now scored twice and added an assist in his three Premier League games this season.
As long as their young stars continue to develop, there’s no telling how good Brighton could be. Compared to the rest of the top flight in the Premier League, Brighton has far and away the lowest payroll. But their ability to pick out emerging talent and tactically and effectively use them as De Zerbi and Potter have done is incredibly impressive
Here is a snapshot of Brighton’s brilliance from 2020-2023, and why it may be time to consider them among the elites of English soccer.
The Seagulls are in the mix among the best English teams, and while they still need a little bit of work to truly reach that highest level, they may be close enough to make the argument that Brighton are among the top flight.
Admittedly, there are a couple small limitations to using xG to analyze Brighton’s rise. At the end of the day, creating xG is crucial, but teams need clinical players that can ultimately score those chances, something Brighton has lacked in years past. Nonetheless, Brighton’s play style and ability to create those chances show that they are very close to being one of the best teams in England.
