Christian Yelich’s Decline and Resurrection

“Let’s play a game of MVP.” When Milwaukee Brewers outfielder Christian Yelich and Los Angeles Dodgers outfielder Cody Bellinger uttered these words in a very rare instance of MLB marketing, it was the start of what many believed to be an entertaining rivalry between two superstars. Very few players in the MLB were as productive and talented as Christian Yelich during the 2018 and 2019 season. Yelich deservedly won the 2018 MVP award and nearly won the MVP in 2019 had it not been for a devastating knee injury, becoming one of the most marketable and exciting players in the league alongside Cody Bellinger. Naturally, given these performances, Yelich was given a superstar contract, $215 million over 9 years, viewed as a marquee player in the Milwaukee Brewers lineup for years to come. 

Yet, in recent years, he has become a polarizing player, difficult to understand and impossible to predict.

Yelich burst onto the season as a rookie with the Miami Marlins in 2013 posting solid numbers in 62 games. He was just as good between 2014 and 2017 alongside star teammates JT Realmuto and Giancarlo Stanton. Yelich was traded a month before 2018 Spring Training started to the Milwaukee Brewers and made an immediate impact. 

His 2018 and 2019 seasons were spectacular, as he posted two seven plus win seasons leading the Brewers to 96 and 89 win seasons respectively. 

However, just a season later, Yelich turned in a disastrous 2020 season. Many brushed this off as a result of his knee injury that ended his 2019 season or the confusion around the pandemic and the delayed 2020 season. Some fans weren’t worried about Yelich and whether he would return to form in 2021, but others had their doubts. Those doubts were entirely valid, as there were many changes to Yelich’s approach at the plate and the quality of his contact. And sure enough, 2021 was just as bad, maybe even worse. This time, the optimism about his potential return to form was fading away. Yelich was a mere shell (if even that) of his former MVP level self. Gone was the power, up went the strikeouts, and at times, he couldn’t buy himself a hit. 

And while these seasons aren't as bad as Chris Davis in his final years with Baltimore, when compared to what Yelich was producing in seasons prior as well as his contract, it’s been massively disappointing. After all, the Brewers didn’t give him a massive contract for him to be just an average player. 

There is a staggering difference between the player Yelich once was and who he has become in recent years. 

I’ll be examining every aspect of Yelich’s profile over the years, exploring whether or not they made a significant impact on Yelich’s performances. 

First let’s take at where Yelich has been hitting the ball.

There really doesn’t appear to be a noticeable difference, though it is interesting to note that Yelich is unlike many power hitting lefties, peppering the ball to all areas of the field, as opposed to the usual pull heavy lefty archetype.

Figure 1

While this isn’t exactly a reason for Yelich’s lack of success recently, it is interesting to note that Yelich’s best seasons came with the lowest opposite field percentages. 

I examined how Yelich has performed against various pitch types.

Figure 2

None of this information is really too surprising. It was expected to see all averages drop, though it is interesting to note how much his production against offspeed pitches dropped from 2019 to 2020.

Figure 3

However, these declines in averages are correlated with his continuously decreasing launch angle against all these different pitches. 

Launch angle will certainly be a key point to look at when comparing Christian Yelich’s batted ball data in his MVP years to his not so good years. We’ll circle back to that shortly but first we’ll examine the quality of contact that he had over his career.

Figure 4

Figure 5

For one, his quality of contact has not altered dramatically. He has remained well above average in exit velocity and hard hit %. Hitting the ball hard has not been a problem for Yelich, consistently in the 80th percentile or above in average exit velocity and never dipping below the 87th percentile in hard hit percentage between 2015 and 2022. 

However, while he has been hitting the ball hard, he has been unable to elevate the ball as seen by his decline in barrel % and launch angle. For reference, a barrel is defined as a ball hit with a velocity of 98 mph or higher and the launch angle varies based upon the corresponding exit velocity. For example, to constitute a barrel, a ball hit 98 mph has to have a launch angle between 26-30, and that range continues to increase as the exit velocity increases: a 99 mph hit between 25-31, a 100 mph hit between 24-32, and so on. 

Figure 6

Figure 7

However, that number has only declined since that season, only starting to increase these past two seasons. Consequently, he began hitting more and more ground balls, from a 50.6% clip between 2017-2019 to a 55.9% clip from 2020-2022.

Figure 8

Furthermore, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has been on a decline as his ground ball % increases, showing that despite the hard contact he’s been making, they haven’t produced results.

Figure 9

Unsurprisingly, Yelich’s production has declined massively in correlation to his uptick in grounders. In 2021, he had just a 74 wRC+ and .282 wOBA on ground balls hit, both below average numbers, and just a 49 wRC+ and .237 wOBA in 2022. 

Back in 2020, Yelich credited Barry Bonds, his 2016 hitting coach with the Marlins, with cleaning up his swing, developing more backspin on contact, and gradually increasing his launch angle. And it seemed to work wonders for Yelich as his ground ball output was declining while at the same time he became a superstar hitter. But things clearly changed after his injury in 2019 as he entered the pandemic season, as the ground balls began to tick up and up all the way back to his early years with the Marlins. 

Additionally, Yelich suddenly became more passive when it came to his approach at the plate. 

We see a much more passive hitter in 2020. He was swinging at pitches in the zone at a far lower clip than he was in his power hitting years, and given his 18.6% walk rate that season (the highest mark of his career), it appears that he was looking to draw walks rather than hit for power. 

Despite all this, it does appear that Yelich is finally back on track to being the player he once was. As of July 21st, he has a slash line of .287/.376/.480 with a wRC+ of 132, an OPS+ of 133 (MLB average is 100), and a WAR of 3.4. He is hitting more barrels than in previous seasons as referenced by figure 5, his launch angle is starting to tick up (figure 6), which has been a likely contributor for his higher HR/FB ratio of 21.3% (13.2% in 2021, 14.7% in 2022). He is also striking out fewer (20.2% K%) while starting to increase his aggressiveness at the plate (figure 9). 

Yelich is having his best season in recent years and it appears that balls are finally starting to drop in for hits. He has hit balls to the opposite field at a 32.3% clip, his career high, and it has been productive, as he is batting .457 with a .539 wOBA on balls hit to left field. 

We’ll never be able to tell what really caused Yelich to fall into a three season downfall, whether it was his 2019 season ending knee injury, the pandemic delaying the 2020 season, or constant back pain in 2020. Regardless, it has been exciting and fun to see Yelich in 2023 playing somewhat back to his high standards and capabilities that we saw in his best seasons. If he continues to trend upwards, it’s very possible he returns to playing “a game of MVP.”