Seahawks Country, Let’s Ride: Geno Smith’s ascension
When the Seahawks traded away star quarterback Russell Wilson, analysts and fans collectively wrote off Geno Smith and the Seahawks as a rebuilding team incapable of being competitive. Six weeks into the season, it’s safe to say that Geno Smith has not written back. Not only do the Seahawks have a better record than the Russell Wilson led Broncos, thus far but Geno Smith has played near MVP Candidate level football while Russell Wilson is having the worst start to his career and has arguably been a bottom three QB this season.
Not only do the Seahawks have a better record than the Russell Wilson led Broncos, thus far but Geno Smith has played near MVP Candidate level football while Russell Wilson is having the worst start to his career and has arguably been a bottom three QB this season.
It seemed all but over for the Seattle Seahawks who ended their era of mediocrity by trading away star player and franchise quarterback Russell Wilson. Despite having Wilson at the helm, the Seahawks failed to reach further than the NFC Division Round in the past five years. With Wilson gone, the team has shifted over to Geno Smith, who despite being written off as a career backup QB, has put up impressive numbers through six weeks this season.
Geno has put up 1502 yards with 9 TDs on a 73.4% Completion Percentage (highest in the league) with a 108.1 QBR (third highest in the league behind just Josh Allen and Tua Tagovailoa).
In fact, this Geno Smith led offense has produced the 5th most efficent offense according to EPA/play.
He’s also been one of the more efficient QBs this season. He has the highest CPOE in the league, meaning that he is delivering on difficult throws that would not be expected of him to make.
Though a portion of his CPOE may be explained by the fact that his receivers are making great catches or getting separation (and as we know, DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett are great options at receiver), this stat still highlights how accurate Geno has truly been.
This composite below offers us a better sense of the rankings as far as efficiency goes.
Based on this composite, not only is Geno ranked 4th, but Russell Wilson, who Geno Smith has had the task of replacing, ranks 26th out of 33. Geno has been crazy efficient. He’s playing mistake free football while consistently moving the ball down the field as a great game manager.
What has made Geno so good, or more importantly, how has he been so much better than Mr. Unlimited Russell Wilson?
For one, Smith has been able to work well in both a clean pocket and when under pressure. Under pressure, Smith has a 59.1% Completion Percentage compared to Russell Wilson’s 46.3%, and Geno holds a higher EPA under pressure.
Additionally, Smith has excelled regardless of O line protection.
One thing to note here is how efficient Smith has been in late downs. Something that the Seattle offense struggled with when Russ was at the helm (especially during that rough offensive stretch from week 7 on in 2020) was third down conversions. In 2020, the Seahawks had just a 38% conversion rate on third down, 27th in the league. With Geno as QB, they now have the 5th highest 3rd down conversion rate at 44.5%.
There is no doubt that Geno Smith has been miles better than Russell Wilson this season. Not only have the Seahawks upgraded (so far) at quarterback by trading away Russ, but they have received two first round picks, a second, and other assets. So far, those picks have turned into Charles Cross and Boye Mafe, the former pairing up with rookie right tackle Abe Lucas to form one of the best offensive lines Seattle has seen in the past few years. What is ironic is that the offensive line was a primary reason Russ requested a trade.
There is no doubt that Russ is the better talent than Geno, but with Russ gone from this Seattle squad, Seattle now has more than enough opportunities to build up a contending squad. In fact, many former teammates of Russell Wilson as well as head coach Pete Carroll have talked about Wilson’s unwillingness to follow what the coaching staff has asked of him.
Wilson has repeatedly blamed Carroll and general manager John Schneider for failing to build a competent offensive line around him, as he has been one of the most sacked QBs in recent years. Yet, on almost half the sacks he has taken, he has no one else to blame other than himself. His determination to make a play no matter how badly it goes results in him refusing to throw. the ball away and taking an otherwise avoidable sack. In fact, he has been at fault for losing many games in Seattle due to him taking avoidable sacks, such as a decisive sack against the Bears in Week 16 last season, ending Seattle’s hopes of reaching the playoffs.
Going to the Broncos did not solve this issue. He has already been sacked 20 times through six games, compared to Geno Smith at 14.
I’m sure that Russ and the Broncos will figure it out soon enough, but as long as Russell Wilson continues to be bad, you know us Seahawks fans will rejoice in knowing that we finally won a big trade for once. Geno Smith, on the other hand, has been a pleasant surprise that has certainly proved his doubters wrong. The only question that remains is whether Seattle have a long term QB in Geno. But for now, Seahawks Country, let’s ride.
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